Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.303987 2.441655 2.591455 2.768204 2.973312 3.206823 3.497382
2025-05-11 2.151045 2.325466 2.524165 2.771648 3.078461 3.456813 3.978006
2025-05-18 2.012174 2.201540 2.423424 2.709554 3.080530 3.565301 4.289239
2025-05-25 1.927389 2.130271 2.373819 2.697731 3.135491 3.740927 4.725927
2025-06-01 1.855419 2.067196 2.326386 2.679958 3.175009 3.895436 5.169361
2025-06-08 1.792512 2.010116 2.280696 2.657745 3.202088 4.031662 5.623418
2025-06-15 1.757264 1.984726 2.272597 2.683568 3.298602 4.290720 6.415833
2025-06-22 1.683092 1.905592 2.188894 2.596773 3.215064 4.233651 6.513210
2025-06-29 1.646256 1.872704 2.164452 2.591539 3.255838 4.398890 7.216931
2025-07-06 1.594015 1.817436 2.106946 2.534256 3.207569 4.392580 7.475865
2025-07-13 1.579524 1.810861 2.114831 2.572622 3.317755 4.708452 8.931643
2025-07-20 1.576688 1.819247 2.143223 2.643103 3.490224 5.198987 11.843979
2025-07-27 1.549456 1.794926 2.126147 2.645125 3.548135 5.470811 14.744248
2025-08-03 1.524268 1.772263 2.110096 2.647208 3.606055 5.763589 19.543204
2025-08-10 1.483477 1.726832 2.059342 2.590448 3.546470 5.737769 21.436945
2025-08-17 1.458447 1.702268 2.037757 2.579496 3.574097 5.959488 30.380539
2025-08-24 1.433480 1.676946 2.013950 2.563255 3.589299 6.153671 49.803650
2025-08-31 1.408863 1.651344 1.988699 2.543025 3.594167 6.321218 134.220640
2025-09-07 1.397523 1.643820 1.989673 2.566459 3.691591 6.834404 NaN
2025-09-14 1.359671 1.598071 1.932158 2.487507 3.564033 6.520823 NaN
2025-09-21 1.342924 1.581727 1.918254 2.482733 3.596258 6.803612 NaN
2025-09-28 1.314572 1.548353 1.877813 2.430467 3.520782 6.662194 NaN
2025-10-05 1.309837 1.548288 1.887533 2.465484 3.641234 7.344006 NaN